![]() It is anyone's guess as to how this plays out, so the best course of action will probably be to apply the percentage decrease from all injury tags collectively when a player is listed as questionable, rather than assuming that all probable players will simply disappear from the injury report. It wouldn't be quite as exact as being able to apply different percentage decreases depending on probable or questionable, but it would be a whole lot better than the former scenario, where a bunch of players that we won't be able to identify beforehand (because they're not quite banged up enough to be listed as questionable) will likely see dips in production anyway. I broke down the injury performance data in probable and questionable/doubtful, but if this scenario played out, a projection for a player listed as questionable could simply be adjusted by the average dip in production for all injury tags. Scenario 2: Teams could start listing players they formerly would have listed as probable as questionable.Īlthough this may muddle things in terms of who is actually going to play, it would still be the more ideal scenario for fantasy owners because at least we would know all the players that will possibly play hurt and adjust their projected performance accordingly. If these players disappear from the injury report, we have no way of spotting these players who are likely to suffer a production drop-off. Remember, while players listed as probable almost always play, they suffer a decrease in production compared to playing when absent from the injury report entirely. While it may seem counterintuitive at first, this is actually the less ideal scenario for fantasy owners. With that being said, here are the two scenarios: Scenario 1: Teams could remove players they would have formerly listed as probable from the injury report. I found that for every position besides quarterback, players saw a decrease in production both when probable and when questionable or doubtful, with running backs and wide receivers seeing a greater decrease when questionable or doubtful than when probable. ![]() There are two scenarios that could play out, but before I get to that, I want to give a preview of the results of the study. How does this affect us as fantasy owners? The rule change could backfire - as the new touchback rule looks like it might be doing - and NFL teams could simply lump in players they would have formerly listed as probable as questionable. The odds that rule change will have the intended effect are shaky at best. The NFL's reasoning was that players listed as probable play at a much higher rate than 75 percent of the time, and so eliminating the probable tag will provide more clarity as to which players are truly in danger of missing the game. ![]() With the new rules in 2016, here is what the injury tags now mean:
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